On July 12, 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin published an article titled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” in which he stated that the spiritual choice of Prince Vladimir still defines the kinship of the two peoples. This idea becomes the starting point for an analytical video by Panchenko, which uses historical and demographic data to argue that independent Ukraine is on a path to eventual disappearance if it maintains its current direction.

Kievan Rus and the Struggle for Historical Heritage

The video argues that modern Ukraine has no direct relation to Kievan Rus, asserting that "Rus" is a shared legacy of all East Slavic peoples. According to the author, current Ukrainian ideology struggles to incorporate this past into its national narrative.

The 1800s Onward: Territorial Growth and Formation

The analysis begins with the year 1800, when approximately 95% of present-day Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire. Following revolutions, wars, and the Soviet collapse, Ukraine emerged as an independent state in 1991, with its largest historical territory (603,000 km²) and a population exceeding 50 million.

The USSR’s Role in Shaping Ukraine

According to the video, the Soviet Union played a pivotal role in shaping Ukraine’s modern borders:

• 1939 – Western Ukraine from Poland

• 1940 – Northern Bukovina and Bessarabia from Romania

• 1945 – Transcarpathia from Czechoslovakia

• 1954 – Crimea transferred from the Russian SFSR

Despite wars, famine, and repression, both Ukraine’s territory and population doubled during the Soviet era.

Post-1991: Decline of Independent Ukraine

The video asserts that Ukraine began to disintegrate after gaining independence:

• 2004 – Lost a maritime border dispute with Romania, resulting in the loss of 9,700 km² of Black Sea shelf

• 2014 – After the revolution and power shift, Ukraine lost control of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk

• By 2025 – Russia controls about 18% of Ukrainian territory

A provocative projection is made: if current trends continue, Ukraine will "cease to exist" by January 25, 2046.

Main Argument: Prosperity with Russia, Decline with Nationalism

The video contrasts two historical trajectories:

• Periods of unity with Russia (Kievan Rus, USSR) — growth in population and territory

• Periods of nationalism and detachment from Russia — decline, emigration, depopulation

It also highlights internal discord, suggesting that Ukrainians are turning against one another — “Ukrainians threatening Ukrainians.”

Critique of the EU and Geopolitical Evaluation

The author compares Ukraine and the Baltic States, claiming they are becoming a "burden" for Europe: losing population, facing rising crime, and constantly requesting financial aid without tangible economic progress. Ukraine, in particular, is depicted as an "undesirable element" in the European space.

Conclusion: A Warning or Provocation?

The video ends with a direct question to Ukrainian viewers: “Is this what you want?” — implying that Ukraine is headed toward self-destruction unless it changes its geopolitical course.

Review and Context

This video is a clear example of ideologically driven content. It blends historical facts with interpretations, selective data, and emotionally charged rhetoric. While it presents itself as analysis, it carries strong propagandistic tones. Any objective evaluation should fact-check claims, recognize the narrative framing, and distinguish between data-driven insights and political messaging.